A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
